Browsing Disease prevalence models

The health needs of a population derive from the prevalence of diseases, i.e. the numbers of people suffering from different types of illness.

A robust and well-researched Disease Prevalence Model (DPM), can help commissioners to identify and address those needs.

Looking only at the numbers of patients currently being treated for a disease does not show its real prevalence and impact on the population’s health. At any given time there are many people who have a disease but are not aware of it because it has not yet been diagnosed.

DPMs provide estimates of underlying prevalence derived from population statistics and scientific research on the risk factors for each disease.

This enables commissioners to assess the true needs of their community, calculate the level of services needed and invest the appropriate level of resources for prevention, early detection,treatment and care.

The DPMs can also be used to support case-finding by identifying those areas where detection rates are low and targeting enhanced diagnostic activity on them.

Informing Healthier Choices commissioned the Association of Public Health Observatories to develop Prevalence Models for some of the long term diseases which, taken together, place a major burden on the health of the population. They are available on line and are easy to use.

The estimates from the APHO models are here.

The models also feature in NHS Comparators. Here they are used to calculate the ratio of the actual number of patients in a GP QOF disease register to the expected number based upon the estimate from the prevalence model. This helps to identify under-diagnosis and supports measures for detection (case finding). NHS comparators is available to registered users with an NHS email address.